Campaign juggling

It occurred to me today, hearing about the underwhelming job growth last month, that the Bush administration has backed itself into a bit of a tactical corner this election season. As we move toward November, there are three major issues on the table: Iraq, terrorism, and the economy. Iraq is a lost cause for the Bushies insofar as it's an unlikely source for positive propaganda between now and the election. There are absolutely no signs that things are getting better there, and it's really, really hard to put good spin on the situation as long as dead American soldiers keep popping up in the news. (And does anybody even remember Afghanistan?) So that leaves only national security and the economy. Ignoring for a moment that the economy hasn't been good at any point during the past four years (though that won't stop el presidente from telling us that it's been great), these two planks are at odds. It would seem that occassional terrorism panics (which are at least partially meant to make us want to run into the strong, white arms of Bush, Cheney, Ashcroft & Co.), complete with road closings and quasi-military presences in New York, DC, and elsewhere, don't tend to foster a sunny, robust investment climate. People here are skittish, what with the very real possibility of new attacks and the government's deplorable exploitation of their fears. And it's too late in the game for the administration to actually do anything about the economy now. They've put all their eggs in the tax cuts basket; if the economy bounces back, they'll claim supply-side success, regardless of the facts. But it would have to be an awfully big bounce to impact the conventional wisdom that the economy's been in the crapper for four years. And that's not likely to happen if we hunker down with a fortress mentality.

So it's narrowing to a one-issue race. Without recent poll numbers at my fingertips, I know Bush's Iraq policies have fallen out of favor, and he can't possibly run on his economic record. It's seems we'll be hearing a lot about terrorism, terrorism, terrorism till November. Which also raises the question, if there is an attack in this country before the election, whom does it help? Kerry, because it will suggest incumbent incompetence? Or Bush, who can, assuming the attack isn't of catastrophic proportions, which would pretty much torpedo his chances, play the "strength" and "resolve" and "rally round the flag" cards? And furthermore, whom do Al Qaeda and their ilk want to win? I think it has to be Bush, for pretty obvious reasons. So how does that affect their plans, if they have any? It's going to be interesting, kids.